#4 Ohio StateMatScouts Crystal Ball projected 2027 NCAA top 15 (Willie Saylor), mid-summer update
A No. 4 ranking might surprise some people. It shouldn't. Ohio State had a brutal NCAA tournament last March and still finished fifth with 84.5 points. Over the last six seasons, no program in the country has a better development score, the gap between what a room's wrestlers were projected to do and what they actually did. In 2026, only Penn State closed it better.
The bill is real. Carson Kharchla and Paddy Gallagher took 18 points with them, and Jesse Mendez's 20.5 hinge on an NCAA eligibility appeal. If he wins his appeal, a two-time NCAA champion is back in the lineup. Either way, Ben Davino (second at 133) and Brandon Cannon (fourth at 157) return, Nick Feldman is back at heavyweight, and Jaxon Smith, an All-American at 184 for Maryland in 2025, transfers in. The firepower is there for a trophy. Staying healthy is the question.
Of the 84.5 team points Ohio State scored at the 2026 NCAA Championships, wrestlers accounting for 46 points (54%) are back in the room this season. A further 20.5 hinge on the pending NCAA eligibility appeal of Jesse Mendez. 18 points walked out the door. Hover over the bar for the breakdown.
2026 NCAA team points: returning vs. leaving
Where Ohio State actually finished at the NCAA Championships each year (solid green line), next to where our development model expected a roster with these ratings to finish (dashed gray line). Hover over a point for the score.
Team finish at the NCAA Championships, 2021 to 2026
Impact score is our model’s one-number rating of a wrestler’s season, earned in the conference tournament and the NCAA bracket: the deeper the March run, the higher the score. Ben Davino’s 147 was the best returning score on this roster last season. Jesse Mendez earned 146 in what may or may not turn out to have been his final year.
Add up every season this roster wrestled in 2025-26 and it comes to 841 impact. 511 of it (61%) is already back in the room, 184 walked out the door through the portal, and the last 146, Jesse Mendez’s, comes back if his appeal lands.
Career impact score entering 2026-27
Brandon Cannon157 lbs
133
Ben Davino133 lbs
116
Nic Bouzakis141 lbs
85
Dylan Fishback184 lbs
78Every weight, who is projected to hold it, what they did in the 2025-26 postseason, and who held the spot last March. All numbers are conference-tournament and NCAA matches only. Impact score is our model’s rating of a season: the 2025-26 number is what they earned, the 2026-27 number is what the model expects next.
No 2025-26 postseason matches. Stats begin when they reach a bracket.
Nic Bouzakis (Sr)DNP at NCAAs (3 seed)
Back in 2026-27
No postseason data yet.
Ben Davino (So)2nd at NCAAs
Back in 2026-27
Jesse Mendez (Sr)2nd at NCAAs
Appeal pending
No 2025-26 postseason matches. Stats begin when they reach a bracket.
Ethan Stiles (Jr)DNP at NCAAs (7 seed)
Back in 2026-27
No postseason data yet.
Brandon Cannon (Jr)4th at NCAAs
Back in 2026-27
No 2025-26 postseason matches. Stats begin when they reach a bracket.
Ken Gallagher (Fr)8th at NCAAs
Back in 2026-27
No postseason data yet.
No 2025-26 postseason matches. Stats begin when they reach a bracket.
Carson Kharchla (5th year)4th at NCAAs
Graduated
No postseason data yet.
Dylan Fishback (Sr)DNP at NCAAs (12 seed)
Back in 2026-27
No 2025-26 postseason matches. Stats begin when they reach a bracket.
Luke Geog (Sr)DNP at NCAAs (12 seed)
Back in 2026-27
No postseason data yet.
No 2025-26 postseason matches. Stats begin when they reach a bracket.
Nick Feldman (Sr)DNP at NCAAs (5 seed)
Back in 2026-27
No postseason data yet.
The 2026 signing class, ranked by final big-board position. Expected entry score is the impact our model projects for a recruit’s first college season, set by where they finished on the board.
Antonio Millsexpected entry score 11#11 board
Adam Watersexpected entry score 11#12 board
Karson Brownexpected entry score 11#21 board
Domenic Munarettoexpected entry score 11#24 board
Tee Millsexpected entry score 1#89 boardThe 2026 cycle, in and out.
Brendan McCrone125 · out to an undeclared destination · undeclared
OutThe full portal history, cycle by cycle, is in the Development section below.
What this roster did in the 2026 bracket, and where that ranks among every team that scored at the tournament.
Medians across the 70 programs that scored at the 2026 NCAA Championships.
2026 postseason pace, projected lineup only.
Ben Davino133 lbs
2.8
Nic Bouzakis141 lbs
1.5
Brandon Cannon157 lbs
1.2
Dylan Fishback184 lbs
1.12026 postseason pace, projected lineup only.
Ben Davino133 lbs
1.7
Dylan Fishback184 lbs
1.4
Nic Bouzakis141 lbs
0.3Every signee and every portal move this program has made since 2020, and what came of them. Expected is the rating our model projects: a first college season is measured against the wrestler’s big-board entry score, later seasons against the development model. Actual is the rating they earned. Click a wrestler to open their score card: the season-by-season receipt behind those career totals.
Bryce Hepner #159 board’26: 7th
expected32actual8
Paddy Gallagher #1 boardno NCAA points yet
expected69actual105
Mike Misita #34 boardno NCAA points yet
expected5actual0
Andre Gonzales #40 boardno NCAA points yet
expected16actual3
Bryer Hall #218 boardno NCAA points yet
expected1actual0
Chase Liardi #247 boardno NCAA points yet
never reached a postseason bracket
Will Betancourt in from Lock Havenno NCAA points yet
no postseason matches at Ohio State on file
Elijah Cleary out to Pittsburghno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 14
Gary Traub out to Oregon Stateno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 32
Jacob Decatur out to Baldwin Wallace Universityno NCAA points yet
career impact not on file
Quinn Kinner out to Riderno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 81
Nick Feldman #1 board’24: 5th
expected125actual205
Jesse Mendez #4 board’23: 6th · ’24: 1st · ’25: 1st · ’26: 2nd
expected359actual547
Nic Bouzakis #5 boardno NCAA points yet
expected90actual135
Luke Geog #22 boardno NCAA points yet
expected32actual78
Seth Shumate #51 boardno NCAA points yet
expected53actual44
Gavin Brown #131 boardno NCAA points yet
never reached a postseason bracket
Braxton Apello #201 boardno NCAA points yet
expected1actual0
Brady Koontz out to University of Dubuqueno NCAA points yet
career impact not on file
Chase Liardi out to Hofstrano NCAA points yet
left with career impact 0
Dylan Koontz out to University of Dubuqueno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 0
Rocky Jordan out to Chattanoogano NCAA points yet
left with career impact 49
Will Betancourt out to Penn Stateno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 14
Rocco Welsh #3 board’24: 2nd · ’26: 2nd
expected52actual133
Ryder Rogotzke #22 boardno NCAA points yet
expected85actual52
Vinny Kilkeary #33 boardno NCAA points yet
expected5actual0
Brandon Cannon #35 board’26: 4th
expected53actual174
Brock Herman #53 boardno NCAA points yet
never reached a postseason bracket
Peyton Fenton in from Virginiano NCAA points yet
no postseason matches at Ohio State on file
Jordan Decatur out to Kent Stateno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 0
Ben Davino #4 board’26: 2nd
expected16actual147
Ethan Birden #17 boardno NCAA points yet
expected11actual0
Carter Neves #43 boardno NCAA points yet
never reached a postseason bracket
Landon Desselle #120 boardno NCAA points yet
expected1actual0
Cayaen Smith #177 boardno NCAA points yet
expected1actual0
Maddox Shaw #17 boardno NCAA points yet
expected11actual0
Cody Chittum in from Iowa Stateno NCAA points yet
no postseason matches at Ohio State on file
Dylan Fishback in from NC Stateno NCAA points yet
expected37actual31
Ethan Stiles in from Oregon Stateno NCAA points yet
expected72actual43
Xander Myers in from Cleveland Stateno NCAA points yet
no postseason matches at Ohio State on file
Andre Gonzales out to Cal Polyno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 14
Brayden Brown out to Mount St. Joseph Universityno NCAA points yet
career impact not on file
Brock Herman out to Little Rockno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 14
Bryce Hepner out to North Carolinano NCAA points yet
left with career impact 54
Carter Neves out to Chattanoogano NCAA points yet
left with career impact 0
Cole Robertson out to Drury Universityno NCAA points yet
career impact not on file
Gavin Brown out to Purdueno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 0
Hogan Swenski out to Riderno NCAA points yet
left with career impact 0
Rocco Welsh out to Penn State’24: 2nd
left with career impact 235
Antonio Mills #11 boardno NCAA points yet
incoming freshman · expected entry score 11
Adam Waters #12 boardno NCAA points yet
incoming freshman · expected entry score 11
Karson Brown #21 boardno NCAA points yet
incoming freshman · expected entry score 11
Domenic Munaretto #24 boardno NCAA points yet
incoming freshman · expected entry score 11
Tee Mills #89 boardno NCAA points yet
incoming freshman · expected entry score 1