2026-27 D1 WrestlingSeason Preview

Fifteen contenders, one trophy. The numbers behind every one of them are one scroll away.

The Projected Top 15

Willie Saylor's Crystal Ball at MatScouts is the projection wrestling argues about all summer. We took his mid-summer top 15 and layered AthletorIQ's postseason numbers over every team: who's back, who's gone, and how many points walk in the door. Breakdowns for No. 15 through No. 8 are live now — a new team drops every Saturday from here to No. 1.

MatScoutsMatScouts Crystal Ball · 2027 mid-summer update
15 Illinois View full breakdown → 14 Wyoming View full breakdown → 13 Iowa State View full breakdown → 12 Lehigh View full breakdown → 11 Cornell View full breakdown → 10 Minnesota View full breakdown → 09 Michigan View full breakdown → 08 Missouri View full breakdown → 07 Stanford View full breakdown → 06 Iowa View full breakdown → 05 Virginia Tech View full breakdown → 04 Ohio State View full breakdown → 03 Nebraska View full breakdown → 02 Oklahoma State View full breakdown →
01 Penn State Full breakdown releases Oct 31

Development Spotlight

Which programs actually made their wrestlers better last season? Our development score answers that with two numbers and a subtraction.

Expected score

Every incoming freshman gets an expected score based on where he sat on the MatScouts big board coming out of high school. That’s his bar for year one. Once he’s in the system, the bar resets every season off what he actually did the year before, so it always reflects where he left off instead of where he was ranked as a senior in high school.

Impact score

Impact score is points for what a wrestler actually did on the mat. Wins, plus bonuses for pins, tech falls, and major decisions. It’s weighted by stage, so a win at NCAAs counts for more than a win at conference, and conference counts for more than a Saturday dual in January.

Development score

Development score answers whether a wrestler outperformed the bar that was set for him. Wrestlers have one and teams have one, and a team’s is the sum of its ten postseason starters. A positive number means that guy or that program outperformed his own track record, which is a different question than who won the most matches.

2026's top developers

  1. Penn State316.4
  2. Ohio State251.9
  3. Nebraska194.5
  4. American182.6
  5. Arizona State180.5
  6. Stanford179.3
  7. Michigan169.3
  8. Iowa State164.9
  9. Rider150.8
  10. Iowa136.4

This is just the top ten. Drop your email and see every Division I program ranked, 2021 through 2026.

2026 NCAA Championship Leaderboards

Before the projection, the receipts. Everything below is from the 2026 NCAA Championships in March: team totals first, then the individuals behind them.

Bonus rate %

The share of the team's wins that came with bonus points (falls, tech falls, and major decisions). Bonus is how team races break open.

  1. Cornell64%
  2. Indiana63%
  3. Penn State63%
  4. Wisconsin50%
  5. Columbia45%

Takedowns

Every takedown the team's wrestlers scored across the championship bracket. The cleanest read on which rooms attack.

  1. Penn State136
  2. Ohio State75
  3. Iowa74
  4. Nebraska70
  5. Stanford70

Nearfall points

Points for holding an opponent's back toward the mat. Back exposure is where routine wins turn into bonus-point wins.

  1. Penn State44
  2. Nebraska35
  3. Virginia Tech32
  4. Michigan31
  5. Oklahoma State26

Riding-time points

The extra point a wrestler earns by controlling his opponent on the mat for a full accumulated minute.

  1. Iowa19
  2. Stanford16
  3. Nebraska13
  4. NC State10
  5. Penn State10

Reversals

Bottom to top in one motion: two points and the momentum with them.

  1. Ohio State11
  2. Stanford10
  3. Wyoming7
  4. Michigan6
  5. Nebraska6

Escapes

Getting out from underneath, one point at a time. Unglamorous, but it is how you stop an opponent's riding clock.

  1. Stanford75
  2. Iowa58
  3. Oklahoma State58
  4. Ohio State57
  5. Illinois54

Stall calls (for)

Points awarded when opponents were penalized for stalling. A proxy for who kept pushing the pace.

  1. Oklahoma State12
  2. Penn State12
  3. Illinois8
  4. Oklahoma8
  5. Arizona State7

Stall calls (against)

Fewest stall warnings among the featured 15: the teams that pushed the pace without getting whistled for killing it.

  1. Illinois7
  2. Lehigh8
  3. Missouri8
  4. Cornell9
  5. Wyoming10

2026 NCAA Championships — Individual Leaders

The wrestlers who drove those team numbers, and faces you'll be watching again in March.

Bonus rate %

The share of wins by fall, tech fall, or major decision, minimum three wins. 100% means nobody took him the distance.

  1. Simon RuizCornell100%
  2. Braxton AmosWisconsin100%
  3. Josh BarrPenn State80%
  4. Levi HainesPenn State80%
  5. Mitchell MesenbrinkPenn State80%

Takedowns

The wrestlers who shot, and finished, more than anyone else in the 2026 championship bracket.

  1. PJ DukePenn State24
  2. Josh BarrPenn State19
  3. Drake AyalaIowa18
  4. Nico ProvoStanford18
  5. Aeoden SinclairMissouri18

Nearfall points

The most back points in the tournament. These wrestlers don't just win positions; they punish them.

  1. Aaron SeidelVirginia Tech24
  2. Jax ForrestOklahoma State16
  3. Taye GhadialiMichigan15
  4. Ryder DowneyNorthern Iowa15
  5. Mitchell MesenbrinkPenn State12

Riding-time points

Riding-time points earned by controlling an opponent for a full accumulated minute on top.

  1. Nico ProvoStanford7
  2. Drake AyalaIowa4
  3. Patrick KennedyIowa4
  4. Aeoden SinclairMissouri4
  5. WHWyatt HensonLock Haven4

Reversals

From underneath straight to control: two points each.

  1. Joey NovakWyoming4
  2. Carson KharchlaOhio State4
  3. Tyler KnoxStanford4
  4. Brandon CannonOhio State4
  5. Jack ConsiglioStanford4

Escapes

One point at a time — the wrestlers who could not be held down.

  1. Tyler KnoxStanford22
  2. Lucas ByrdIllinois15
  3. Brandon CannonOhio State15
  4. Carter NogleAir Force14
  5. WHWyatt HensonLock Haven13

Stall calls (for)

Points collected while opponents were penalized for backing away.

  1. Kannon WebsterIllinois5
  2. Mitchell MesenbrinkPenn State4
  3. Cody MerrillOklahoma State3
  4. Tyler FerraraCornell3
  5. Luke StanichLehigh3